| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in Austin, Texas, on April 7, 2026. It serves as a localized hedge or speculative instrument for those interested in regional climate volatility and weather patterns.
April in Central Texas is a transitional period characterized by significant variability, as the region moves from mild spring weather toward the onset of summer heat. Historical data for Austin shows that early April temperatures can fluctuate widely based on the movement of cold fronts from the north versus warm, humid air masses arriving from the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts make predicting the precise overnight low for a specific date in the future a complex task for meteorological models.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather conditions, where traders adjust their positions based on long-range climate forecasts and emerging atmospheric patterns.
The official reading is typically derived from the primary National Weather Service reporting station at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
Yes, this market settles based on the absolute minimum temperature recorded within the 24-hour window of the specified date, regardless of whether it sets a new historical record.
Traders often utilize global forecasting models like the GFS or ECMWF, which attempt to project pressure systems and temperature anomalies weeks or months in advance.
The market settles based on the official data reported by the designated meteorological authority; extreme events are simply reflected in that final official measurement.
No, it focuses on the lowest temperature reached at any point during the 24-hour cycle of April 7, 2026, which typically occurs just before or around sunrise.