| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded in Austin, Texas, on April 2, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for weather-risk hedging and climate data analysis.
Austin's spring climate is characterized by significant volatility, often influenced by shifting cold fronts and the transition from late winter to early summer. Historical records for early April show a wide variance in low temperatures, ranging from unseasonably cold nights to mild, humid mornings. These fluctuations make temperature forecasting a critical component of local energy grid management and agricultural planning.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather outcomes, where higher prices indicate a consensus toward specific temperature ranges based on meteorological modeling.
The official reading is typically derived from the primary National Weather Service observation site at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
The market resolves based on the official recorded low temperature, regardless of whether extreme weather influenced that specific reading.
No, the market strictly tracks the recorded ambient air temperature as reported by official weather data sources.
While climate trends provide a baseline, accurate meteorological forecasts for a specific calendar day are generally only reliable within 7 to 10 days of the event.
Early April marks a transitional period where the jet stream frequently shifts, bringing alternating periods of arctic air and warm Gulf moisture to the region.