| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be out as U.S. Secretary of Labor. Changes in cabinet leadership matter because they signal shifts in labor policy, enforcement priorities, and political stability within the administration.
Cabinet-level departures can result from resignations, dismissals, health issues, criminal or ethical investigations, or routine turnover tied to political cycles. Political pressure from Congress, the White House's priorities, media coverage, and major labor or economic events all shape the likelihood and timing of a secretary leaving office. Resolution specifics depend on official announcements and the market's posted rules.
Market prices aggregate current information and participants' expectations about the event but are not guarantees; they can move quickly after news. Use prices as a real-time signal of perceived risk and to compare how expectations change in response to developments.
Typically, 'out' means the office is publicly vacated through resignation, dismissal, or other formal departure. Temporary leaves of absence usually do not count; check KALSHI's official resolution rules for the precise definition used to settle this specific market.
The President (who can accept a resignation or remove a cabinet member), the secretary themself (via resignation), Congress (through oversight, impeachment proceedings, or political pressure), and law-enforcement or ethics investigators whose findings can precipitate departures.
Announcements of intent are not the same as vacating the office; most resolution frameworks consider the date the office is actually vacated as decisive. Refer to the market’s settlement criteria for how transitional arrangements are handled.
An indictment or public impeachment inquiry increases the likelihood of departure by raising pressure, but impeachment by the House alone does not remove someone; Senate conviction is required for removal. Legal charges can also lead to voluntary resignation or administrative suspension depending on circumstances.
Watch official White House statements, the Department of Labor press releases, a formal resignation letter, Senate floor activity or votes, Inspector General and DOJ filings, major investigative reporting, and any official personnel notices about vacancies or acting appointments.