| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before March 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Jan 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Lisa Cook will be out of her role as a Federal Reserve Governor by the market’s settlement conditions. The outcome matters because departures from the Board affect institutional continuity, votes on monetary policy, and the balance of viewpoints at the Fed.
Lisa Cook is an economist who serves on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; governors serve long, fixed terms and play a direct role in setting monetary policy and regulatory priorities. Changes in Board membership are relatively uncommon and can shift policy dynamics, attract congressional attention, and trigger nomination and confirmation processes. Political pressures, career moves, health or personal decisions, and high-profile controversies are the usual drivers of unexpected departures.
Market prices reflect the community’s aggregated assessment of whether she will leave office under the market’s terms; they update rapidly as new, event-specific information arrives. Interpret prices as a real‑time signal of changing expectations, not a fixed forecast.
For this market, “out” means that Lisa Cook is no longer serving in her capacity as a Federal Reserve Governor under the market’s resolution rules, whether due to resignation, removal, appointment elsewhere, or other means recognized by the contract.
Departures that typically count include a formal resignation, acceptance of a different full-time federal position that vacates the seat, or a removal action that results in her leaving the Board; the market’s official contract defines which specific scenarios settle as “out.”
Verified announcements from Lisa Cook, the Federal Reserve, the White House, or Senate leadership that clearly state a resignation, appointment, or removal are the most direct triggers that would change market expectations and potentially resolve the contract if they meet the settlement criteria.
Statutory protections and historical practice make forcible removal of a Fed governor uncommon and legally constrained; as a result, voluntary resignation or reassignment is by far the more typical path to leaving the Board.
Watch official communications from Lisa Cook, Fed press releases, the White House, relevant Senate committees, reputable national news outlets, and any public records of investigations or personnel moves that would directly alter her status.