| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before January 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before July 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before January 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Lai Ching-te will cease to hold the office of President of Taiwan under the contract’s resolution conditions. It matters because changes in the presidency affect Taiwan’s domestic politics, cross‑strait relations, and policy continuity.
Lai Ching‑te (William Lai) is a senior Taiwanese politician and prominent figure in the Democratic Progressive Party who has held high government office. Taiwan’s presidency is shaped by domestic legislative dynamics, public opinion, political parties, and external security pressures, any of which can influence whether a president remains in office for a full term. The market focuses on whether he will be out of the presidency according to the contract’s definitions and timeline.
Prediction market prices summarize how traders are weighing available information and likely scenarios; they update as new facts—official announcements, legislative votes, court rulings, health disclosures, or major political events—arrive. For precise resolution criteria and timing, always consult the contract text on the exchange.
Typically it means Lai Ching‑te no longer occupies the presidential office as defined by the contract at the contract’s resolution time; the precise definition (e.g., removal, resignation, death, incapacity, or end of term) and any qualifying dates are set in the market’s contract text and should be checked before trading.
Common pathways are voluntary resignation; impeachment initiated by the Legislative Yuan and adjudicated by the constitutional/judicial authority with the power to remove; incapacity or death triggering succession rules; and any constitutionally prescribed special procedures—each of which has distinct legal and evidentiary thresholds.
The vice president would normally assume the presidency. If the vice presidency is also vacant or unable to serve, specific constitutional provisions and statutory procedures determine interim arrangements and whether a special election is required.
Market-sensitive developments include official resignation announcements, impeachment motions or votes in the legislature, court decisions on impeachment or eligibility, credible reports about serious health or incapacity, major political scandals, and sudden national security events that change political trajectories.
'Closes: TBD' means the market does not have a fixed public closing time; resolution will follow the contract’s specified condition and the exchange’s announcement. Traders should monitor official updates, read the contract resolution rules carefully, and be prepared for potential abrupt changes in liquidity or price as new information appears.