| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Kristi Noem will be out as U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary during the market's specified time frame. It matters because cabinet turnover has policy and political consequences and can shift administration priorities and congressional dynamics.
Kristi Noem is a high‑profile Republican politician whose name has been discussed in national political conversations; cabinet-level positions are shaped by White House decisions, Senate actions, public controversies, and operational events at the agency. Historical cabinet changes have been driven by scandals, policy disagreements with the president, performance during crises, or strategic political calculations ahead of elections.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations about whether Noem will leave the DHS secretary position by the market's settlement date; prices move as new information, official announcements, and political signals arrive.
Outcome labels are defined by the platform; typically they separate (a) 'Noem is out as DHS Secretary by the settlement date,' (b) 'Noem remains DHS Secretary by the settlement date,' and (c) an 'ambiguous/other' or conditional outcome for scenarios the contract writers specified. Check the market's outcome descriptions on the platform for the precise definitions used to settle this specific event.
Most markets treat an official, public end to service (formal resignation, termination by the president, or a successor confirmed/acting in her stead) as being 'out.' The platform’s settlement rules will list the exact actions and documentation required; traders should consult those rules to see which events trigger settlement.
Settlement determinations follow the platform’s adjudication process and are usually based on publicly available, verifiable sources (official White House statements, DHS announcements, or congressional records). If an outcome is ambiguous, the platform’s dispute resolution or oracle process resolves it according to its posted rules.
Markets specify a settlement date or closing condition; an 'out' event must occur within the time window defined in the contract. Because this market’s close is listed as TBD, traders should monitor the platform for the official settlement window and any updates to timing.
Watch official White House and DHS statements, resignation letters, presidential personnel actions, Senate scheduling or confirmation activity, congressional subpoenas/hearings, major investigative reporting, and major DHS operational crises—each can materially change expectations about whether she will leave the post.