| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader under the contract’s specified conditions. Leadership changes are politically significant because they reshape party strategy, parliamentary dynamics, and policy expectations.
Keir Starmer has been the Labour Party’s leader since 2020 and has overseen internal party reform, legislative positioning, and multiple electoral tests at local and national levels. Intra-party dynamics, public polling, media coverage, and the outcomes of elections and by-elections have historically been the main drivers of leadership stability in UK parties.
Market prices aggregate traders’ assessments of the likelihood of the event happening and update as new information arrives; they are a real‑time reflection of collective expectations rather than authoritative party decisions. For authoritative resolution criteria, always consult the contract’s official rules and resolution source on the market page.
Resolution depends on the contract’s definition: typically it requires an official and publicly verifiable cessation of his status as Labour leader (e.g., formal resignation or removal under party procedures). Check the market’s resolution text to see what actions and sources will be used to determine the outcome.
Outcome labels on the market correspond to mutually exclusive scenarios or time windows defined by the contract (for example different dates or methods of removal). Read the outcome descriptions on the market page to understand the precise distinctions and resolution conditions.
Whether a temporary step‑aside resolves the market depends on the contract’s wording. Some contracts require permanent cessation of leadership, others resolve on any official absence. Consult the contract’s resolution criteria to see whether interim arrangements trigger resolution.
A TBD close means the platform has not set a final resolution window publicly; traders should monitor the market page and platform announcements for an update. Until a close or resolution window is specified, outcomes are judged according to the contract text and any announced resolution schedule.
Key movers include official announcements from the Labour Party or Starmer, statements by senior MPs or party bodies, decisive electoral results, credible reports of internal revolts or confidence votes, and major scandals or health disclosures.