| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which value or range the official U.S. jobs numbers for October 2026 will report; the outcome matters because the monthly employment report is a major input to monetary policy, markets, and macro forecasts.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an Employment Situation report each month that includes headline payrolls, the unemployment rate, and other labor-market detail. Since the pandemic-era disruptions, labor-force participation, remote work patterns, and sectoral shifts have made monthly prints more volatile and widely watched by investors, policymakers, and economists.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the collective view of traders about which outcome will be reported; interpret the market as a real-time, tradable distribution of expectations that can move with incoming data and news rather than a single definitive forecast.
The market will reference the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official Employment Situation release for the October 2026 reference month (the headline payrolls and any defined sub-measure specified by this market's contract). Check the market rules for the exact field used to settle.
The BLS normally publishes the Employment Situation for a reference month on the first Friday following that month; markets that trade on that release often close at or just before the official release time to avoid trading on nonpublic data, but check this market's page for its specific close time since it is listed as TBD.
This particular market offers multiple mutually exclusive outcomes (13 total) that represent either numeric bins or specific reported values as defined by the contract; consult the market description to see the exact bins or labels for each outcome.
BLS routinely revises prior months' payrolls and other series; while the October release itself is settled on the published October number, revisions to earlier months can change trend assessments and may move market prices after the release as traders update their longer-run expectations.
Key indicators include weekly initial jobless claims, ADP/private payroll estimates, payroll processor reports, sector-specific hiring announcements, monthly household-survey signals, and any major macro news (e.g., Fed statements or large fiscal measures) that could affect labor demand before the official October release.