| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which published jobs number will be reported for November 2026 and why that figure matters for markets, policy, and business planning. Monthly payrolls and related employment statistics are watched closely because they influence interest-rate expectations and economic outlooks.
The underlying data come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report, which includes measures such as nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate. November readings are often shaped by seasonal hiring patterns, holiday staffing, and timing effects; analysts compare the print to prior months and to high‑frequency indicators when forming expectations.
Market prices represent the aggregated expectations of traders about which outcome will match the official report and will move as new information arrives. Use the market as a real‑time signal of consensus expectations, but always check contract terms and settlement rules for the exact series used.
Settlement is typically tied to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' initial Employment Situation release for November 2026 and to the specific series named in the contract (for example, seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls). Check the market's contract terms for the exact series and settlement source.
The BLS typically publishes a month’s Employment Situation on the first Friday of the following month at 8:30 a.m. ET; the exchange will set the market's trading window and official close relative to that release. Watch the Kalshi market page for the announced close time and trade cutoff.
Most contracts settle to the initially published value specified in the terms; subsequent BLS revisions generally do not change a settled outcome unless the market explicitly states that a later revision will be used. Confirm the settlement rule in the market description.
The creator divided the possible official jobs figure into 13 mutually exclusive bins or labeled outcomes so each trade corresponds to one numeric range or result. Only the single outcome that matches the official published number (as defined in the contract) pays out.
Monitor private payroll estimates (e.g., ADP), weekly unemployment claims, job posting and help‑wanted indexes, major employer headlines, seasonal hiring trends (retail and hospitality), and any macro or geopolitical news that could shift hiring; these items often move market expectations ahead of the BLS release.