| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks how the official jobs report for May 2026 will come in and matters because the monthly jobs print is a major indicator of labor market health that influences markets and policy. Traders use this event to express views on employment momentum, wage pressures, and near‑term economic strength.
The U.S. monthly jobs release (the BLS Employment Situation) is the market’s focal point for payroll growth, unemployment, and wage change; it has a long history of moving asset prices and policy expectations. Monthly figures are subject to sampling noise, seasonal adjustment and periodic revisions, so individual prints are informative but best viewed in context of prior months and broader indicators.
Market odds on this contract reflect the aggregated expectations of participants and will move as new data and news arrive; they are not guarantees of outcomes. Always consult the market’s rulebook to see exactly which official series and release (initial or revised) will be used for resolution.
The official U.S. jobs report for May 2026 is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly Employment Situation; historically that release occurs in early June. Check the BLS release calendar and the Kalshi contract page for the precise scheduled timing used to resolve the market.
The market’s 13 outcomes partition the possible official report results into mutually exclusive resolution buckets (for example, ranges, thresholds, or categorical outcomes). Refer to the contract description on Kalshi to see the exact mapping of reported values to each outcome.
Prices signal the consensus view of participating traders about which outcome is most likely given current information; they update as new data, surveys, or news arrive. Use prices as one input among model estimates, economic indicators, and qualitative news—not as definitive forecasts.
Resolution depends on the contract’s specified official source and cut (e.g., the initial BLS headline or a later revised value). Always read the event’s resolution rules on Kalshi—some markets resolve to the first published figure while others specify a particular series or revision window.
Participants include retail traders, macro funds, economists hedging exposure, and news‑driven speculators. With modest traded volume, individual trades can move prices more and make the market less robust to outlier bets, so interpret swings with caution and consider liquidity when using prices as a signal.