| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -75,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders bet on the headline U.S. jobs report for March 2026 — a key monthly data point that influences markets, monetary policy expectations, and business planning. It matters because monthly payroll and unemployment moves are closely watched indicators of labor-market strength and inflationary pressure.
The U.S. employment situation is reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and combines the establishment (payroll) survey and the household survey. Since 2020 the labor market has moved through unusual cycles (pandemic shock, recovery, and subsequent rebalancing), and traders will price March 2026 in the context of recent payroll trends, wage growth, and policy responses. This Kalshi market offers 13 distinct outcomes and will settle based on the official government release per the market’s settlement rules.
Market prices aggregate participants’ views about which outcome will be realized; they update as new data and news arrive. Use the market price as one real‑time signal among other indicators rather than a definitive forecast.
Settlement is based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation release for March 2026; the market uses the headline nonfarm payroll change reported by the BLS per the market’s stated contract rules—check the market page for the exact settlement definition.
The market closes and settles according to the timing stated in the contract rules; typically settlement occurs against the official BLS Employment Situation release timestamp for March 2026, so orders should be placed before the release time listed on the market page.
Most markets settle on the initial official BLS number for the month in question; subsequent BLS revisions usually do not change which outcome paid out unless the contract specifically references revised figures—consult the settlement rules for revision-handling provisions.
Key movers include ADP/private payroll releases, weekly initial jobless claims, payroll processor data, major company hiring or layoff announcements, GDP updates, and Fed communications about labor and inflation expectations; any surprise in those data can shift trader expectations for March payrolls.
Participants range from macro traders, economists, and market-makers to hedgers (firms sensitive to labor costs) and speculators; the market shows moderate liquidity with $3,207 in total volume traded and 13 available outcome buckets, so slippage and spread should be considered when placing larger orders.