| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the official U.S. jobs report for July 2026 will read and matters because the report is a key short-term indicator of labor-market health that influences markets and policy.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues a monthly Employment Situation report that combines two surveys—payroll (establishment) and household—providing headline payrolls, unemployment, and earnings data. Monthly jobs releases are central to assessing economic momentum and are closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers for signals about growth and inflation pressures.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about the report and move as new information arrives; they are not guarantees but a live summary of market sentiment and available data.
The BLS normally releases monthly employment data on the first Friday of the following month at 8:30 AM ET; confirm the exact release time and this market's close time on the event page and the official BLS release calendar.
This market offers 13 mutually exclusive outcomes that correspond to specific ranges or categories tied to the official jobs report; consult the market's outcome definitions on the event page to see how each outcome maps to BLS metrics.
The official BLS establishment (payroll) and household surveys determine the headline numbers; private-series releases—such as ADP payrolls, payroll processor reports, and weekly jobless claims—are commonly used by traders to anticipate the BLS result.
Revisions change the baseline against which July is judged and can shift expectations quickly; markets typically react when the scope of prior-month revisions alters the perceived momentum of hiring.
New data (ADP, jobless claims), major employer layoff or hiring news, unexpected economic releases, or changes in monetary policy communication are the most likely triggers to shift market pricing ahead of the BLS report.