| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the U.S. jobs numbers for August 2026 (the monthly BLS Employment Situation) will be reported; the result matters because the monthly jobs report influences financial markets, growth expectations, and policy debates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation each month, typically on the first Friday of the following month at 8:30 a.m. ET; the report’s headline items include the change in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. August data are watched for seasonal hiring patterns (e.g., back-to-school) and for signs of momentum heading into the autumn; in 2026, those structural and policy contexts remain key inputs to interpreting the number.
Prediction market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which outcome bucket will be realized and update as new information arrives; they are an information-rich, real‑time summary of market sentiment rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement will be determined by the official BLS Employment Situation for August 2026, which the BLS typically publishes on the first Friday of the following month at 8:30 a.m. ET; the platform’s contract close/settlement timestamp is shown on the Kalshi contract page and is currently listed as TBD, so check that page for the precise settlement time.
This market is tied to the headline BLS figure—most commonly the monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August 2026—mapped into one of the market’s outcome buckets; consult the Kalshi contract description for the precise settlement rule and which published series (headline payrolls, unemployment rate, etc.) is used.
The contract is broken into thirteen mutually exclusive outcome buckets that span a spectrum from large negative to large positive changes in the August payroll number; the Kalshi contract page lists the exact numeric boundaries for each bucket.
Use past August payroll changes, their revisions, and seasonal adjustment behavior to build a baseline expectation, and overlay recent monthly trends (e.g., prior three months), high‑frequency indicators (initial jobless claims, job postings, ADP or private payroll estimates), and known calendar events that could move the number.
Modest volume can mean thinner liquidity and greater price sensitivity to individual trades, so expect wider effective spreads and potentially larger intraday moves; if you trade, consider using limit orders, check the order book depth, and be mindful that prices may move quickly on new data or large orders.