| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -75,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -25,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 100,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 125,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 150,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 175,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 200,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many jobs will be reported for April 2026 by the official employment release named in the market description; the monthly jobs number is a high‑frequency signal of economic health that influences markets, business planning, and policy decisions.
Monthly jobs reports (often from a national statistics agency) are among the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators because they combine payroll, household, and unemployment data and can move financial markets and policy expectations. Historical complications include seasonal adjustments, survey sampling noise, and later revisions; traders typically monitor related indicators and calendar effects to form views. This KALSHI market lists 13 discrete outcomes and has seen moderate trading volume ($1,182), which affects liquidity and how quickly prices incorporate new information.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations about the reported April jobs figure at any given moment; treat prices as a continuously updating consensus signal that depends on who is trading, market liquidity, and the market's explicit resolution rules.
The specific series and source are defined in the market's resolution rules on the KALSHI event page; check that text to confirm whether it resolves to a national payroll measure, nonfarm payrolls, household employment, or another official series and which agency's first published figure is used.
Closure and resolution times are set on the market page (currently listed as TBD). Many jobs markets close shortly before the official release time and resolve to the initial published number; confirm the exact close time and resolution timing in the event description to plan trades.
That depends on the market's resolution rules: some markets use the first published figure and ignore later revisions, while others specify a revision window or different handling. Read the event's resolution clause to see how revisions are treated.
Each outcome corresponds to a labeled bucket (range or category) for the reported jobs change; you must map the official published number to the outcome labels exactly, paying attention to inclusive/exclusive endpoints, rounding conventions, and any stated units. The outcome labels on the event page show those definitions.
Private payroll estimates (e.g., ADP/Paychex), weekly initial jobless claims, payroll survey snippets, business hiring announcements, and monthly PMI/employment components are commonly watched. Major policy statements, macro releases (inflation, retail sales), or unexpected shocks can also shift market expectations ahead of the official release.