| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before June | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before August | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Jerome Powell will no longer be a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The outcome matters because changes in Fed leadership can affect monetary policy expectations, financial markets, and political dynamics in Washington.
Jerome Powell has served as both a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and, at times, as Chair; those roles are filled by presidential nomination and Senate confirmation. Governors serve fixed statutory terms, while the Chair is a designated role among sitting governors, so departures can occur via resignation, the end of a term without reappointment, or rare legal/political removal actions. Political pressure, confirmation battles, and macroeconomic developments all shape the likelihood and timing of such a departure.
Market prices on this contract reflect traders' collective assessment of whether Powell will no longer be a Fed governor by the market's settlement conditions; prices can move rapidly as news and political signals arrive. Always consult the market's official description and settlement rules to understand exactly what event outcome the market is tracking.
Resolution follows the exchange's official criteria: generally, Powell would be considered 'out' if he is not listed as a sitting member of the Board of Governors on the market's settlement date because of resignation, removal, or failure to be reappointed/confirmed. Always check the market's rule text for exact definitions and edge cases.
He could resign voluntarily, fail to be reappointed or confirmed for a subsequent term, or be removed through legal/political processes (such as removal for cause or impeachment), though removal is rare and would involve complex legal and political steps.
The President (who nominates governors and can influence reappointment), the U.S. Senate (which confirms or blocks nominations), Jerome Powell himself (if he chooses to resign), and senior political leaders who shape confirmation dynamics.
No — this market is about Powell's status as a governor. Losing the Chair designation while remaining a Board member would not meet the 'out as Fed Governor' condition; conversely, losing his governor seat (for any reason) would count as 'out.'
Consult the market page and contract terms on the trading platform (Kalshi) for the official settlement rules, definitions, and any announced close date; for confirmation of Powell's official status, refer to announcements from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and formal government records.