| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market trades on which range the official Japan unemployment rate for February 2026 will fall into. Labor market readings are closely watched by investors and policymakers because they signal economic momentum and can influence monetary and fiscal decisions.
The headline unemployment rate in Japan comes from the Labor Force Survey and reflects the share of the labor force without work but actively seeking employment. Recent years have seen structural headwinds such as an aging population, shifts between full-time and part-time work, and episodic global demand changes that shape the baseline level and volatility of the rate. Short-term movements often reflect cyclical factors—domestic demand, export performance, and seasonal hiring—superimposed on longer-term demographic trends.
Market prices express the collective view of which predefined unemployment-range outcome will contain the official February 2026 figure and will update as new data and news arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of market expectations, while remembering that official statistics and subsequent revisions are the authoritative source for settlement.
The market will resolve to the official unemployment rate as published by Japan's statistics authority for the February 2026 reference month; settlement occurs after that official release according to the platform's resolution rules, so check the market page for the exact settlement timing.
Each of the 10 outcomes corresponds to a predefined numerical range or bucket for the reported February 2026 unemployment rate; the single outcome whose range contains the official published value is the winner.
The winning outcome is determined by the unemployment rate published in the official Labor Force Survey release from Japan's Statistics Bureau (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) or the designated resolving authority specified by the market.
Watch high-frequency signals such as jobs-to-applicants ratios, corporate employment surveys, payroll and household employment indicators, industrial production, retail sales, PMI readings, and tourism/seasonal hiring data, along with BOJ commentary that could shift business sentiment.
Most events settle on the first official published figure for the reference month; subsequent revisions typically do not change the settled outcome unless the event's resolution rules explicitly state otherwise—always confirm the platform's rules for this market.