| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $5.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants express expectations about the level of Japan's nominal GDP in calendar year 2026. It matters because market-implied views aggregate information about growth, inflation, policy and external conditions that affect investors, firms, and policymakers.
Japan's economy in recent years has been shaped by low trend growth, an aging population, periodic disinflation and reflation episodes, and active monetary and fiscal policy responses to global shocks. Changes in global demand, energy prices, and domestic policy choices continue to influence Japan's headline nominal GDP outcomes.
Odds in this market reflect the collective assessment of traders about the official nominal GDP outcome for 2026 and will change as new data and policy actions occur; interpret prices as evolving signals rather than definitive forecasts, and consider liquidity and timing when using them for decision making.
Resolution will be based on the official nominal GDP figure for calendar year 2026 as published by Japan's national statistics authority (typically released by the Cabinet Office or other official national accounts publications); check the market rules for the exact source used for settlement.
The market close is listed as TBD; until a final close is posted, traders should monitor the market page for the official closing time and be aware that prices can move substantially around major data releases and policy announcements leading up to the settlement statistic.
Historical patterns—such as prolonged low growth, episodic inflation shifts, and responses to global shocks—set a baseline for plausible outcomes, but each year's result also depends on contemporaneous shocks, policy responses, and global demand conditions that can shift the distribution of outcomes.
Key events include Bank of Japan policy meetings and guidance, major fiscal budget announcements or stimulus measures, quarterly GDP and national accounts revisions, and global macro developments (e.g., trade trends or commodity price shocks) that affect exports and inflation.
Total volume traded ($3,399) and the presence of 15 distinct outcomes indicate the current level of liquidity and granularity: lower volume can mean wider spreads and less reliable price signals, while more outcomes create finer distinctions among possible nominal GDP ranges; combine this information with recent price moves and external data when assessing market informativeness.