| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which month‑over‑month (MoM) inflation rate Japan will report for March and why that reading matters for near‑term economic signals and markets. The March MoM figure can influence expectations for monetary policy, the yen, and short‑run consumer price trends.
Japan's CPI has been driven in recent periods by energy and import price swings, domestic demand conditions, and wage dynamics; seasonality and one‑off price adjustments also matter. The March reading will be interpreted in the context of prior months' trend and any recent shifts in the yen, global commodity prices, or domestic economic activity.
Market odds show how traders allocate beliefs across the nine outcome buckets specified for this event; movements in prices reflect incoming data, news, and changes in market sentiment. Before trading, check the event description and liquidity because low activity can make prices more volatile or less informative.
This market settles based on the official publication of the March MoM inflation figure; the event page and settlement rules list the market close and the source used for settlement, so check those timings before trading.
The specific CPI series used to determine the outcome is defined in the event's settlement rules and description; confirm whether the market uses headline CPI, core CPI (excluding fresh food), or another variant before placing trades.
The nine outcomes partition the possible MoM values into discrete buckets so traders can express views on ranges rather than an exact point estimate; the outcome whose bucket contains the published figure wins at settlement.
Short‑term drivers include sudden yen moves, new information on energy or commodity prices, flash business or consumer indicators, large corporate price actions, and official communication from the Bank of Japan that changes expectations about the economic backdrop.
Japan's official monthly CPI series is published by the national statistics authority (see the event's settlement rules for the exact source). Initial monthly releases can be revised later, but this market typically settles on the first official publication as defined in the settlement rules—check whether the market specifies a revision policy.