| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Jacob Frey will be out as Mayor of Minneapolis. It matters because a change in mayoral leadership would affect city policy, administrative continuity, and political dynamics in a major U.S. city.
Jacob Frey is the incumbent mayor of Minneapolis and has been a central figure in local debates over public safety, policing, housing, and city administration. Minneapolis politics have been shaped by high-profile incidents, council dynamics, and activist movements that can raise pressure on the mayor’s office. Any outcome for this market will reflect how those ongoing local issues, institutional procedures, and political actors interact over time.
Market prices are a running summary of participants’ expectations about whether Frey will leave office under whatever settlement definition the market uses; they update as new facts arrive and should be read as a real-time consensus signal, not a guarantee.
Settlement depends on the market's official rules; commonly this phrase means the mayor no longer holds the office for any reason (resignation, removal after recall or legal process, or electoral defeat) by the time the market is settled. Always check the market’s settlement criteria for the definitive definition.
In most event interpretations, any voluntary resignation that results in him no longer serving as mayor would count as being out, but the market’s official rules determine whether specific circumstances qualify.
Recall petition milestones and whether a petition triggers a recall election are important midstream signals: accumulating valid signatures or filing a successful petition increases the likelihood of a removal mechanism being invoked, while a failed petition reduces that immediate pressure. The ultimate determinant is whether the recall process results in removal before settlement.
Key actors include the mayor’s office, Minneapolis City Council members, organized activist groups and community coalitions, legal authorities (prosecutors or courts), and influential local institutions (unions, major donors, or civic organizations) that can drive momentum for or against removal.
Track official announcements from the Mayor’s office and Minneapolis City Council, filings with the city clerk (resignations, recall petitions, election filings), local reputable news outlets and court dockets for legal actions, and the market’s own settlement and rule page for any event-specific details.