| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 49 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 51 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 52 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 53 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 54 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 55 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 56 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading for April 2026. This monthly report is a critical indicator of economic health, signaling whether the U.S. manufacturing sector is expanding or contracting.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys hundreds of manufacturing companies to gauge activity levels across areas like new orders, production, employment, and supplier deliveries. An index reading above 50 generally indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Market participants closely monitor this data to anticipate Federal Reserve policy shifts and broader industrial trends.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of where the PMI will land within predefined numerical ranges, reflecting the consensus view of traders regarding industrial performance.
The winner is determined by the official 'Manufacturing PMI' figure published in the monthly ISM Report On Business for April 2026.
The market outcome is typically settled based on the initial headline number released by the Institute for Supply Management; subsequent revisions do not retroactively change the settled result.
Yes, the headline ISM Manufacturing PMI figure is seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Supply Management to account for recurring annual variations.
A reading of 50.0 is the neutral mark; readings above 50.0 indicate expansion in the manufacturing sector, while readings below 50.0 indicate contraction.
The ISM traditionally releases the report on the first business day of the following month, which would be May 1, 2026.