| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 215000 | 51% | 50¢ | 54¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| At least 220000 | 33% | 28¢ | 32¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| At least 210000 | 79% | 76¢ | 81¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| At least 225000 | 26% | 18¢ | 26¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| At least 205000 | 85% | 85¢ | 86¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| At least 200000 | 92% | 91¢ | 92¢ | — | $798 | Trade → |
| At least 230000 | 13% | 12¢ | 17¢ | — | $347 | Trade → |
| At least 240000 | 11% | 2¢ | 10¢ | — | $247 | Trade → |
| At least 190000 | 96% | 92¢ | 96¢ | — | $181 | Trade → |
| At least 195000 | 89% | 91¢ | 95¢ | — | $43 | Trade → |
This market asks which of ten outcome bins the U.S. initial jobless claims report for the week ending March 7, 2026 will fall into. Initial claims are a timely indicator of labor-market stress and can move financial markets and policy expectations.
Initial jobless claims are published weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and measure new unemployment insurance filings for a specific claim week; markets and economists use the series to detect changes in hiring, layoffs, and short-term labor-market trends. Claims can be noisy week to week because of seasonality, holiday effects, state reporting lags, and large individual employer events, so analysts focus on patterns across several weeks as well as on the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series.
Prediction-market odds show the market’s consensus about which outcome bin is most likely and update as traders incorporate new information; use odds as a real-time signal of collective expectations, not as a guarantee of the reported number.
The U.S. Department of Labor publishes the weekly initial claims report covering a specific filing week; check the DOL’s release schedule for the exact publication date and the market page for the platform’s reporting of the figure.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive range or bin for the reported level of initial jobless claims for the March 7, 2026 claim week; the market page lists the exact ranges for the ten outcomes.
Large layoffs that affect the claim week typically increase filings and can move the reported number materially; traders should check the timing of layoff effective dates and whether affected workers are likely to file in that week or later.
Seasonal adjustment algorithms smooth predictable seasonal patterns but can amplify moves in transition periods; holiday or weather disruptions can distort both raw and adjusted series, so compare adjusted and unadjusted figures and recent seasonal patterns.
Revisions change the historical context and can alter perceived trends; this market settles on the published value for the specified week, while later revisions will be incorporated into subsequent analysis and future markets.