| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 190000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 195000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 200000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 205000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 210000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 215000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 220000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 225000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 230000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 235000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how many new unemployment insurance claims will be filed in the United States during the week ending March 28, 2026. Weekly initial jobless claims are a high-frequency indicator of labor market health and can influence markets, policymaking, and economic narratives.
Initial jobless claims are compiled from state unemployment insurance filings and typically published weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week ending the previous Saturday. This Kalshi market presents ten discrete outcomes for that specific survey week; the market closing time is listed as TBD, and traders should confirm the platform schedule before the DOL release. Because claims are noisy from week to week, analysts look at trends and related series (continuing claims, payrolls) to gauge durable changes in employment.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the collective expectations of participants about which predefined claims-range outcome will occur for the week ending March 28, 2026; they are dynamic and respond to new information. Use prices as indicators of consensus belief rather than exact measurements of future official numbers.
The DOL typically posts weekly initial claims on Thursday morning Eastern Time for the week ending the previous Saturday; Kalshi markets normally close before the official release, but this specific market lists a close time of TBD—check Kalshi for the official closing timestamp before the DOL release.
It refers to the number of people filing initial claims for regular unemployment insurance during the DOL survey week that ends on Saturday, March 28, 2026; the DOL publishes both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted series, and this market tracks the official counts for that survey week as defined by the DOL.
Major corporate layoff announcements, large-scale plant shutdowns, abrupt changes in state UI administration (including mass processing of backlogged claims), or acute local disasters (storms, floods) that force workers out of jobs or trigger mass filings.
Seasonal hiring and separations around spring, plus the timing of holidays in late March/early April, can change the raw counts and the seasonal-adjustment factors applied by the DOL, producing one-week swings that may not reflect a sustained labor-market trend.
Watch continuing claims (a one-week lagging indicator of ongoing unemployment), upcoming monthly payrolls and the unemployment rate from the BLS, recent corporate layoff reports, and state-level UI announcements—initial claims are a high-frequency signal best interpreted alongside these other series.