| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 190000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 195000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 200000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 205000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 210000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 215000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 220000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 225000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 230000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. initial jobless claims figure will be for the week ending March 21, 2026, a timely indicator of new unemployment filings. Traders use it because initial claims are one of the fastest signals of changes in labor-market conditions and can move financial and policy expectations.
The U.S. Department of Labor publishes weekly initial claims, which measure first-time unemployment insurance filings and are sensitive to layoffs, seasonal hiring, and one-off shocks. Claims spiked during the 2020 pandemic and have since moved with the business cycle; short-term swings often reflect large employer announcements, weather events, and state-level reporting variations. For March 21, 2026, participants will be trading expectations about the DOL’s published number for that reference week.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views and update as new information arrives; they should be read as a real-time summary of expectations rather than a guaranteed outcome. Use prices alongside fundamentals, recent news, and DOL release timing to form a view.
The DOL typically releases weekly initial claims on the Thursday after the reference week at 8:30 AM Eastern Time; for the week ending March 21, 2026, the published figure is therefore expected on the following Thursday (subject to any agency schedule changes).
The contract settles to the official initial (first-time) unemployment insurance claims number published by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week ending March 21, 2026; consult the market page for the labeled outcome bins and Kalshi’s resolution rules for rounding or edge cases.
The national initial-claims total is an aggregation of state filings; if one or more states report late, correct errors, or experience system outages, that can shift the published total for the March 21 reference week. The figure used for settlement is the DOL’s official release on the publication date.
Announcements of large corporate layoffs or plant closures, major weather-related disruptions, late-breaking state unemployment office notices, and surprising macro releases or policy statements can all materially change expectations ahead of the DOL release.
The 10 outcomes partition possible published values into discrete resolution bins so traders can express granular views; choose based on your assessment of recent claims trends, relevant news affecting that reference week, and your risk tolerance, and verify the exact bin ranges on the market page before trading.