| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 205000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 225000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 220000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 200000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 240000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 210000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 230000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 190000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 195000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 215000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market concerns the Department of Labor’s reported initial (first-time) jobless claims for the benefit week ending March 14, 2026. Initial claims are a timely gauge of layoffs and near-term labor market stress, so the number can influence markets and policy discussions.
The weekly initial claims series measures new filings for unemployment insurance and is published by the U.S. Department of Labor in its Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. Traders and analysts watch the headline claims number alongside its historical pattern and seasonal adjustment to assess whether layoffs are rising or falling. State-level reporting practices, large employer events, and seasonal cycles can produce volatility in certain weeks.
Prediction market prices summarize the crowd’s real-time expectations about the DOL’s published figure; they move as participants digest new information such as corporate layoffs or economic releases. Use market-implied odds as a consensus signal rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The Department of Labor’s weekly Unemployment Insurance claims report is normally published on the Thursday following the covered week, typically at 8:30 AM ET on the DOL website and via major data vendors; for the week ending March 14, 2026 that release would ordinarily occur on the following Thursday.
This market resolves to the seasonally adjusted initial (first-time) unemployment insurance claims figure as published in the Department of Labor’s headline 'initial claims' value for the week ending March 14, 2026 in the weekly claims report.
Settlement follows the market’s official resolution terms; commonly these markets use the first published headline number on release day for settlement and do not retroactively adjust for later revisions. Refer to the market description for Kalshi’s specific resolution rules for this event.
Announcements that matter include layoffs by major employers, state unemployment policy changes, sudden industry shocks (e.g., plant closures), extreme-weather events affecting filing volumes, and earlier-week macro releases that alter expectations for hiring or firings.
Mid-March can reflect seasonal patterns in hiring and separations and the DOL’s seasonal-adjustment procedure; compare the seasonally adjusted number with the unadjusted series and multi-week trends to avoid over-interpreting a single-week swing driven by seasonal effects.