| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 220000 | 50% | 48¢ | 50¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| At least 215000 | 71% | 68¢ | 71¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| At least 210000 | 83% | 82¢ | 83¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| At least 225000 | 24% | 21¢ | 23¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| At least 205000 | 89% | 88¢ | 89¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| At least 200000 | 91% | 90¢ | 91¢ | — | $972 | Trade → |
| At least 230000 | 13% | 11¢ | 12¢ | — | $817 | Trade → |
| At least 190000 | 95% | 96¢ | 97¢ | — | $206 | Trade → |
| At least 195000 | 95% | 95¢ | 96¢ | — | $138 | Trade → |
| At least 240000 | 4% | 0¢ | 8¢ | — | $49 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market tracks the U.S. Department of Labor's weekly initial jobless claims figure for the week ending February 28, 2026; traders use it to express views on near‑term labor market flows. The outcome matters because initial claims are a timely signal of layoffs and can influence markets and policy discussion.
Initial jobless claims measure first‑time filings for unemployment insurance and are published weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, covering the Saturday‑ending reporting week. Historically, weekly claims are volatile and seasonally adjusted; analysts compare them to recent weeks and to other labor indicators (payrolls, continuing claims) to judge momentum in the labor market. This Kalshi contract aggregates market expectations ahead of the official release and currently shows active participation (Total Volume Traded: $17,335).
Market prices on Kalshi reflect the collective expectation of traders about the official DOL number and move as new information arrives; they are not the official statistic. Use market prices as a real‑time gauge of expectations, but confirm final interpretation against the DOL's published release and any subsequent revisions.
The U.S. Department of Labor publishes the weekly initial jobless claims report; the number covering the week ending Saturday, February 28, 2026 is typically released on the following Thursday morning (check the DOL schedule for the exact release time).
It counts new filings for unemployment insurance submitted during the seven‑day reporting period that ends on February 28, 2026; it is a one‑week snapshot of layoffs and does not measure continuing unemployment benefits.
The DOL publishes both raw and seasonally adjusted figures; seasonal adjustments smooth predictable patterns (e.g., winter layoffs, year‑end effects), and end‑of‑month timing or unusual calendar alignments can influence both raw counts and the adjusted series, so analysts often examine both.
Because the national initial claims total aggregates state filings, a major layoff or administrative change in one or several large states can produce a noticeable spike in the national figure for that reporting week; analysts check state breakdowns for attribution.
The market will settle based on the official DOL release for the week ending February 28, 2026; Kalshi's listing indicates the market closes at a platform‑specified time (currently shown as TBD), so traders should confirm the exact market close and settlement rules on Kalshi before trading.