| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 190,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 195,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 200,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 205,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 210,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 215,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 220,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 225,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 230,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the number of individuals filing for state unemployment insurance benefits for the week ending April 4, 2026. These figures serve as a high-frequency indicator of labor market health and economic momentum.
Initial jobless claims are reported weekly by the Department of Labor and are among the most closely watched metrics by the Federal Reserve and financial markets. Sustained shifts in these numbers often signal broader changes in consumer spending and business hiring trends. Sudden spikes or dips are typically analyzed against historical seasonal adjustments and regional economic conditions.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how many people will file for unemployment during this specific week, aggregating insights from economic models and real-time labor data.
The outcome is determined by the U.S. Department of Labor's 'Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report' released shortly after the week concludes.
This reporting period captures early second-quarter labor activity, which economists monitor to assess the ongoing resilience or cooling of the labor market.
Yes, the market tracks the seasonally adjusted initial claims figures as reported by the Department of Labor to account for predictable recurring fluctuations.
Significant weather events can lead to temporary spikes in jobless claims as business operations in affected regions are forced to pause or reduce hours.
Not necessarily, as claims fluctuate due to various factors, but a consistent upward trend is often viewed by analysts as a leading indicator of weakening economic conditions.