| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) value will be reported for May 2026; it matters because the CPI YoY is a headline gauge of inflation that influences financial markets and policy decisions. Traders use this market to express and aggregate expectations about near-term inflation trends.
CPI YoY compares prices in May 2026 to prices in May 2025 and is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Recent years have shown that energy, food, and shelter components can drive short-term swings, while central bank policy and labor market conditions shape medium-term inflation trends. Market participants will place this month’s reading in the context of prior monthly prints, seasonality, and recent macro data releases.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of participants about the BLS-release for May 2026 and will move as new data and news arrive; they are an information signal, not a guarantee of the final published number.
The BLS issues CPI on a monthly schedule; check the BLS release calendar for the exact May 2026 publication date. Markets typically price in expectations ahead of release and react quickly when the official number is published, so note the BLS timing and any exchange-specific market close rules for this contract.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, mutually exclusive range or bin of year-over-year CPI for May 2026 as defined on the market page; the winning outcome is the one that matches the final BLS-published CPI YoY and settlement rules.
Watch recent monthly CPI and core CPI prints, producer price index (PPI), import/export price data, commodity futures (especially crude oil and agricultural commodities), regional shelter and rent reports, and any major macro releases on wages or employment.
The BLS calculates CPI using the CPI-U basket of goods and services, applies seasonal adjustments where relevant, and publishes both headline CPI and core CPI; this market settles on the specific BLS headline YoY figure for May 2026 as defined by the contract's settlement terms.
Major drivers include sudden swings in energy prices (geopolitical events or supply disruptions), unexpected labor market reports or wage announcements, large policy statements from the Federal Reserve, and supply-chain shocks or extreme weather affecting food and shelter components.