| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders express views on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year inflation rate for March 2026; discrete outcome bins indicate which CPI YoY range participants expect. It matters because the CPI YoY reading is a key input for monetary policy, financial markets, and cost‑of‑living assessments.
The CPI YoY is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares the headline price level in March 2026 to March 2025; markets, economists, and policymakers watch the headline number as well as its major components. Inflation dynamics since 2020 have been shaped by factors such as supply‑chain disruptions, energy and commodity swings, labor market conditions, and policy responses; those forces continue to influence the likely March 2026 outcome.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' beliefs about which CPI YoY bin will be reported and should be read as a real‑time, probabilistic signal rather than an official forecast. Prices can move quickly as new data or policy cues arrive, so interpret them as evolving market sentiment.
The outcome is determined by the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) headline CPI year‑over‑year figure for March 2026 as reported in the monthly CPI release; consult the market's settlement rules to confirm whether settlement uses the first published figure or a later revision.
The listed close time is TBD; monitor the event page on the platform and any announcements for an official close time. Also track the BLS CPI release calendar—markets often have cutoffs tied to the public release schedule and may include a short arbitration window after publication per contract rules.
Settlement depends on the specific contract rules: some markets settle on the first published BLS number, while others may use the final revised figure. Methodological changes by the BLS are rare but can affect comparability; always check the market's settlement documentation to see which version governs outcome resolution.
Shelter (rent and owners' equivalent rent) is typically the largest driver due to its weight, while volatile components like energy and food can create month‑to‑month swings; used cars, medical services, and core goods can also influence the headline YoY depending on recent price trends.
Monetary policy decisions, forward guidance, and major macro releases (employment, wages, ISM, PCE) shape expectations for demand and inflation persistence; any surprises in those data or policy statements can shift trader sentiment and therefore market prices ahead of the March CPI print.