| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market tracks the U.S. Consumer Price Index year-over-year change for June 2026; it matters because the CPI is a primary gauge of inflation that influences monetary policy, financial markets, and real incomes.
The CPI measures price changes for a broad basket of goods and services compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; the June YoY reading is watched for evidence of accelerating or decelerating inflation trends. Markets, economists, and policymakers use the monthly CPI sequence to assess underlying inflation momentum and to guide interest-rate and fiscal decisions.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of participants and update as new information arrives; they are an information signal about consensus beliefs, not a guarantee of the reported outcome.
Settlement will rely on the official U.S. CPI year-over-year change for June 2026 as published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; consult the Kalshi market page for how that official figure maps to the listed outcomes and any rounding rules.
The market close is listed as TBD; typically these markets close at or shortly after the official BLS release time for the June CPI. Check the Kalshi market page for the exact close time and the published settlement schedule.
Each of the 13 outcomes corresponds to a predefined range or bucket of the reported June 2026 CPI YoY reading. The outcome whose range contains the official BLS figure will be declared the winner per the market’s settlement rules.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the official source for the CPI release; Kalshi will use the BLS publication and follow its own stated settlement procedures to determine the winning outcome.
Prices for energy and food, interim labor-market reports and wage indicators, central-bank speeches and policy shifts, sudden supply disruptions or weather events, and major fiscal announcements can all materially shift market expectations ahead of the official June CPI release.