| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which headline U.S. CPI year‑over‑year reading will be reported for April 2026. The result matters because CPI YoY is a widely used gauge of inflation that influences monetary policy, financial markets, and purchasing power.
Headline CPI measures the change in consumer prices for a broad basket of goods and services and is published monthly by the official statistics agency. April YoY compares prices to the same month a year earlier, so recent inflation momentum, prior‑year base effects, and month‑to‑month developments all shape the April reading. The market offers ten discrete outcome buckets so traders can express views on ranges rather than a single point estimate.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which outcome bucket is most likely, and they move as new data or news arrive. Use prices as a real‑time signal of market consensus while remembering they can change quickly around major releases or unexpected events.
The official CPI for April is published by the national statistics agency on its regular monthly schedule (typically in the weeks after the month ends). This Kalshi market normally settles based on the published official headline CPI YoY; the exact settlement timing and the market close are listed in the contract details on Kalshi and are currently TBD.
The ten outcomes divide the possible headline CPI YoY readings into mutually exclusive ranges (buckets). When the official April CPI YoY number is published, the outcome whose defined range contains that value will settle as the winning outcome. Consult the contract page for the precise numeric cutoffs for each bucket.
Monthly domestic indicators such as prior‑month CPI, producer prices, import/export price indexes, employment and wage reports, and high‑frequency indicators (energy futures, commodity prices, retail sales) typically move expectations. Fed speeches, minutes, and geopolitical or supply‑shock news can also shift the market quickly.
CPI figures are occasionally revised or reclassified and the contract's rulebook defines which published series and which vintage determine settlement. Traders should read Kalshi's contract specifications for this market to see whether settlement uses the first published headline number, a subsequently revised figure, or another defined source, and to understand dispute and adjustment procedures.
Watch monthly price series (prior month CPI components), producer prices, import/export prices, energy and food commodity futures, shelter/rent measures and rent reporting lags, labor market and wage releases, and any major supply shocks or fiscal developments that affect demand. Also track consensus forecasts and market‑based signals for near‑term inflation expectations.