| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market lets participants bet on the reported India unemployment rate for February 2026; outcomes matter for investors, policymakers, and businesses because labor-market signals influence macro policy, consumption, and market sentiment.
India's labor-market readings combine formal-sector hiring, informal employment, and seasonal agricultural work; short-term unemployment rates can swing with crop cycles, festival-driven hiring, and cyclical changes in manufacturing and services. Different data providers and surveys (monthly private estimates vs. official statistical releases) have produced divergent monthly readings in recent years, so traders watch timing, source, and methodology closely.
Market odds reflect the aggregate view of participants about which outcome bucket is most likely given available information; they update as new data and news arrive but are not guarantees of the official reported number.
The contract will resolve to the data source and definition specified on the market page; check the market description for the exact indicator (for example, a particular agency's monthly headline unemployment rate) and the contract's resolution rules.
Monthly labor-market updates are typically published shortly after the reference month; this market will resolve according to the timing and release specified in the market's resolution text—monitor that description and the named data publisher for the official publication date.
February can be influenced by the tail end of winter-season agricultural work and pre-monsoon labor patterns, as well as construction and industry hiring cycles; seasonal migration between rural and urban areas and temporary contract work also affect the headline rate.
Watch monthly industrial production, high-frequency indicators (PMI, retail or mobility metrics), major company hiring or layoff announcements, GST collections and consumer demand signals, and any policy announcements affecting employment or wages.
Differences can arise from timing and coverage gaps between data sources, later revisions to published series, small-market liquidity and trader positioning, or new information arriving after market pricing but before the official release.