| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $4.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $4.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above $5.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which nominal GDP bucket India will fall into for 2026; nominal GDP is a key indicator of the size of the economy and reflects both real output and price changes. Market prices offer a continuously updating aggregation of traders' expectations about official 2026 nominal GDP outcomes.
India's economy has been expanding for decades with a structural shift toward services, rising domestic demand, and periodic volatility from global cycles and commodity prices. Nominal GDP outcomes in any year combine underlying real growth with inflation, fiscal choices, external conditions, and statistical revisions from the national statistics office.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about which outcome interval is most likely given current information; prices move as new macro data, policy decisions, and revisions arrive. Consult the market's settlement rules to map final official releases to the traded outcomes.
The market settles to the official nominal GDP series and time frame specified on the event page; check the event’s settlement rules to confirm whether it uses calendar-year 2026, fiscal-year 2025–26, or another defined series and which official release will be used.
KALSHI will cite the official source and release on the event page and settlement terms; in practice this is typically the national statistical agency’s published nominal GDP figure, and traders should consult the event’s settlement documentation for the exact data series and release used.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement normally occurs after the official release specified in the settlement rules, and there may be a waiting period to allow for any official revisions or clarifications before final settlement.
Key triggers include quarterly GDP and industrial production releases, monthly inflation and employment data, major fiscal announcements or budgets, central bank policy decisions, significant commodity-price shocks, and large external demand swings that alter export trends.
Official nominal GDP figures are sometimes revised after initial publication; the market’s settlement rules specify which version is used. Traders should account for the possibility of revisions when assessing early releases versus later, more complete data.