| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexi Giannoulias | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robin Kelly | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Juliana Stratton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Raja Krishnamoorthi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| JB Pritzker | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Meredith Shiner | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Austin Mink | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael Frerichs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Robert Peters | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dick Durbin | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rod Blajegovich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lauren Underwood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kwame Raoul | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate from Illinois; it matters because the nominee determines the party’s general-election candidate and influences general-election competitiveness. Trading reflects how participants interpret candidate strength, timing, and changing news.
Illinois is a large, diverse state with a strong Democratic baseline in many federal elections; incumbency, statewide name recognition, and Chicago-area politics have historically shaped outcomes. Democratic nomination contests in Illinois often feature statewide officeholders, members of Congress, and high-profile local figures, and can be influenced by national trends, fundraising, and endorsements.
Market prices represent the collective view of traders at a moment in time and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees of outcome. Use prices as a real-time signal of how the field is shifting rather than a static prediction.
The market resolves to the candidate who is officially recognized as the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate from Illinois, as determined by the resolution rules posted with the market (typically based on state certification or an official party nomination process).
The market’s close and resolution depend on the election schedule and the market’s stated rules; typically it resolves after the Democratic primary is decided and the nominee is officially certified, but the market may list a specific closing time (here listed as TBD).
Most nomination markets include an 'other' or similar outcome; if the certified nominee is a person not listed, resolution follows the market’s rules for 'other' outcomes or market-specific procedures — check the market details for how unlisted nominees are treated.
Outcomes usually list declared or widely reported potential candidates such as incumbents, current statewide officeholders, members of Congress, prominent local officials, and a catchall 'other' for less likely or late entrants.
Key market movers include official campaign announcements or withdrawals, major endorsements, fundraising reports, statewide or primary polling releases, legal or ethical developments affecting candidates, and shifts in the national political environment that change perceived electability.