| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Howard Lutnick will leave the position of U.S. Commerce Secretary. Outcomes matter because changes at Commerce can affect trade policy, economic regulation, and markets that respond to administration personnel shifts.
Howard Lutnick is best known as a long-time finance executive and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald; this market concerns his tenure in a Cabinet-level role overseeing trade, industry policy, and parts of the federal economic portfolio. Cabinet turnover can be driven by policy disputes, political pressure, legal issues, health, or personnel decisions by the President, and each pathway has different timelines and implications.
Markets aggregate participant views about the likelihood and timing of an event based on available signals; use them as a real-time complement to news and official actions rather than definitive forecasts. Because odds change quickly, focus on the underlying developments that would cause a shift in market prices.
‘Out’ typically refers to permanently ceasing to serve as Commerce Secretary through resignation, dismissal, or formal removal; temporary medical leave or short-term acting arrangements may not qualify depending on the market’s resolution rules, so check the market’s official definition for precise criteria.
A firing is usually effective on the date the President’s action is publicly announced and the Secretary stops performing the duties of the office; some markets use the announcement date, others use the effective date listed in official documents—consult the event’s resolution language.
Yes — major congressional actions (high-profile hearings, subpoenas, or reports) increase political pressure and can move market sentiment even if they don’t immediately remove him; such developments change perceived risk of departure.
An acting replacement generally indicates the prior Secretary is no longer performing the role; whether that resolves the market depends on whether the change is temporary or recorded as an official vacancy in the platform’s rules.
Timelines depend on whether the President names an acting official or a nominee requiring Senate confirmation; acting officials can be installed immediately, while a confirmed successor’s timetable depends on nomination, committee scheduling, and floor action—each step can influence how quickly the vacancy is filled.