| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than $900 Billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ More than $800 Billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| More than $1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than $1.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than $1.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than $1.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| More than $1.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which wealth band Elon Musk will occupy at the official settlement moment before 2027. It matters because his net worth movements reflect large equity valuations, corporate actions, and broader market sentiment that can influence economic and investment narratives.
Elon Musk's reported wealth is driven largely by equity stakes and compensation tied to companies he leads, including public companies (where market caps and share prices move continuously) and private companies (where valuations are updated intermittently). Historically his net worth has swung materially on big stock moves, option exercises, secondary transactions, and changes to private-company valuations, so markets tracking his wealth are sensitive to corporate events, funding rounds, and macro conditions.
Market prices for each outcome represent traders' aggregated beliefs about which net-worth band will be true at settlement; they move as new information arrives. Use prices to compare relative market sentiment across outcomes rather than as fixed predictions.
Each outcome corresponds to a specified net-worth range or bucket defined in the market description; the market page lists the exact bands and the settlement criteria used to determine which bucket applies at the official settlement timestamp.
Settlement uses the official reference source and methodology defined in the market terms on Kalshi; that could be a named published index or a specific data provider and a defined timestamp—check the event page for the exact source and resolution rules.
"Before 2027" means the market will settle based on the value reported at the settlement timestamp specified in the market terms, which occurs prior to 2027; the precise cutoff date and time are listed on the Kalshi event page and in the resolution rules.
Treatment of private-company value depends on the chosen settlement reference: some data providers estimate private valuations from the latest funding rounds or comparable public multiples, while others use published proprietary estimates; the market's documentation will state which method is used.
Yes—corporate actions and material transactions can materially change reported net worth. The market will settle on the figure reported by the designated reference at the settlement timestamp, which typically accounts for corporate actions according to its own normalization rules.