| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the US core PCE price index (which excludes food and energy) will increase for September 2026. The outcome matters because core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and influences interest-rate expectations and financial markets.
Core PCE is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as part of the Personal Income and Outlays report and is closely watched for underlying inflation trends in services and goods excluding volatile food and energy. Recent monetary policy, labor-market dynamics, housing costs, and supply-chain developments all feed into the September reading and into market expectations leading up to that release.
Prices in this prediction market represent traders' collective expectations about the official core PCE increase for September 2026; they move as new data and news arrive. Use the market as a real-time signal of changing expectations, and consult the event page for settlement rules rather than treating market prices as definitive forecasts.
Settlement is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' published core PCE increase for September 2026 in the Personal Income and Outlays report; the market will use that official BEA figure per the event's settlement rules.
The event page lists five distinct outcome buckets that partition possible values of the reported September 2026 core PCE increase; each tradeable outcome corresponds to one bucket, and only the bucket containing the official BEA number settles as the winner—see the event listing for the exact bucket boundaries.
The listing shows the market close as TBD; typically such markets remain open until after the official BEA release or until the platform-specified cutoff. Check this specific event's page for the precise close and settlement timestamp.
Monthly CPI and PPI releases, payrolls and unemployment reports, retail and consumer spending indicators, major Fed speeches, and any large supply shocks or energy-price moves tend to shift expectations for the September core PCE print.
This event currently shows low total volume traded (listed on the event page); low volume implies thinner liquidity and wider spreads, so traders should account for execution costs and potential difficulty entering or exiting sizable positions.