| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will increase in October 2026 — a closely watched inflation gauge that influences monetary policy, bond markets, and economic forecasts.
Core PCE excludes food and energy and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric; the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes it in the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. October 2026's reading will be evaluated against recent trends, seasonal patterns, and market expectations, and it can prompt revisions to interest-rate outlooks and asset prices.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' views about plausible outcomes and update as new information arrives; treat them as a dynamic consensus indicator rather than a definitive prediction. For settlement, always refer to the event's resolution language to see which official BEA figure is used and whether revisions matter.
The market will reference the BEA's published core PCE figure for October 2026 as specified in the event's resolution text; the BEA publishes core PCE in its Personal Income and Outlays release, which is available on the BEA website and economic calendars.
The exact measurement (for example month-over-month change, annualized monthly rate, or year-over-year) is defined in the market's resolution rules; many markets with this phrasing use the month-over-month increase, so check the event page to confirm the precise metric.
Whether revisions affect settlement depends on the event's resolution language — some markets settle to the initially published BEA number while others allow later revisions to determine the final outcome; consult the event rules to know which applies here.
Monitor monthly employment reports, CPI and PPI releases, retail sales, import/export price indices, weekly energy price trends, and Fed speeches; these provide real-time signals that often precede movements in core PCE.
The event page lists the market close time (currently TBD); some markets close before the BEA release while others remain open and settle after publication, so verify the listed close time and settlement rules to know whether post-release trading is possible.