| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which range the Bureau of Economic Analysis' core PCE reading for November 2026 will fall into, a key gauge of underlying U.S. inflation that influences monetary policy and financial markets.
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy) is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and is published monthly by the BEA. Recent years have seen persistent inflationary pressures in services and wages, and market participants watch each monthly release for signs of acceleration or cooling. The November reading will be interpreted in the context of prior monthly PCE prints, recent Fed communications, and macro shocks that occurred in late 2026.
Market prices on this event reflect participants' collective expectations about which numeric range the published BEA number will fall into; watch the event description to confirm the exact settling series and range definitions. Because prices move as new information arrives, they represent a snapshot of consensus expectations at a point in time rather than a fixed probability.
The BEA typically publishes the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report in the month following the reference month, so the November reading will be released in December 2026; this event will settle based on the official BEA release specified on the event page, and the platform's posted close time determines when trading stops.
Settlement will use the BEA's core PCE price index as indicated in the event description; check the event page to confirm whether it is the month-over-month change or a year-over-year measure and which exact table or line is referenced for settlement.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a numeric range defined in the event details; after the BEA publishes the November core PCE, the outcome whose range contains that published value is the winning outcome.
Low cumulative volume indicates limited liquidity and that prices may be driven by a small number of trades, so interpret market prices cautiously and consider supplementing with your own analysis of underlying data and risks.
Look at several past Novembers to see whether inflation tends to accelerate or decelerate at year-end, examine contributions from services versus goods, and note how prior November prints influenced subsequent Fed commentary and market reactions.