| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much core PCE (personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy) will increase in May 2026 and why that change matters for inflation dynamics. The result is watched by markets and policymakers because it influences monetary policy expectations and financial conditions.
Core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as part of the Personal Income and Outlays report. Market expectations for the May 2026 reading will reflect recent trends in services and shelter prices, wage growth, and global goods and energy prices, as well as recent central bank communication on inflation. Because the reading is a short-term snapshot, it is interpreted in the context of prior months and incoming economic signals.
Prediction market prices summarize collective expectation about the magnitude of the May core PCE increase given available information; movements in those prices reflect updated assessments as new data and news arrive. Use them as an indication of consensus expectations and uncertainty, not as a definitive forecast.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Personal Income and Outlays report, which contains the core PCE figure, on a scheduled release date (typically late in the month). This market will settle based on the official BEA publication designated for May 2026; the event page or platform rules indicate the precise settlement timing if set.
The market uses the BEA’s personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy for the May 2026 reference month, following the measurement and seasonal-adjustment convention specified in the event rules (commonly the month-over-month seasonally adjusted change).
Settlement is governed by the platform’s event rules and is typically based on the official BEA figure cited for the May 2026 release; in common practice, markets settle on the designated official release and are not re-settled on later revisions, but consult the event rules for the definitive policy.
Key items include the prior month’s CPI and core CPI reports, employment and average wage data, retail sales and personal income & spending updates, recent shelter-related measures (rent indices), changes in oil and import prices, and any major Fed speeches that alter near-term rate expectations.
Participants typically include macro traders, economists, institutional investors, rates and FX desks, algorithmic market-makers, and active retail traders; their views are also shaped by professional forecasters, primary economic-data releases, and public communications from central bankers.