| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of five outcome ranges will match the month-over-month change in core PCE for March 2026; core PCE is a key inflation measure watched by markets and the Federal Reserve. It matters because the reading helps shape expectations for monetary policy, bond yields, and financial markets.
Core PCE measures personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy and is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; the official number is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Personal Income and Outlays report. Recent inflation trends, labor market conditions, and supply-chain developments set the backdrop for the March 2026 reading, and markets incorporate incoming data and Fed communications in the lead-up to the release.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which outcome range will be realized; changes in prices reflect new information or shifts in sentiment. A higher market price for an outcome indicates stronger consensus that that specific range will match the official BEA release.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes core PCE as part of its monthly Personal Income and Outlays report; that official release determines the event outcome and is typically the anchor for when prediction markets settle. Because this event lists its close as TBD, consult the event page for the platform's announced closing rules and whether the market closes at the official release time or shortly thereafter.
Settlement is based on the official month-over-month change in core PCE (personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy) for March 2026 as published by the BEA, following the platform's documented rounding and settlement rules.
Each of the five outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive range of possible month-over-month increases in core PCE for March 2026; the event page lists the exact boundaries for each range, and only the range that contains the BEA's published figure will settle as the winning outcome.
Key movers include CPI and PPI inflation reports, employment and wage data (e.g., the monthly jobs report and wage measures), retail sales, import/export prices, major Fed communications (minutes, speeches), and any unexpected macro shocks or fiscal announcements that could alter near-term inflation expectations.
Price changes reflect activity from economists, macro traders, institutional and retail participants, and algorithmic strategies; traders react to incoming data, surveys, and policy signals, so liquidity and volatility can increase around major releases and Fed announcements.