| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will change in June 2026 — a key monthly inflation reading that excludes food and energy. Core PCE is closely watched because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and influences policy and markets.
Core PCE measures underlying inflation pressures by excluding volatile food and energy prices and is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Recent years have seen volatility driven by pandemic-related base effects, supply disruptions, and changing services and shelter inflation dynamics; in 2026 markets are pricing-in evolving labor market and monetary policy conditions. The June reading will be interpreted against that backdrop and the sequence of economic data released in the months leading up to it.
Market odds for this contract aggregate participant beliefs about the likely June core PCE outcome and update as new information arrives. Odds should be read as a market-implied consensus that changes with incoming data, Fed commentary, and economic developments.
The outcome is determined by the U.S. BEA’s monthly core PCE price index for June 2026 (PCE excluding food and energy) as published in the official BEA release specified by the contract's settlement rules.
The market resolves on the date and time the contract’s rules specify, typically upon the BEA’s official initial publication of the June 2026 PCE report; check the contract page for the precise settlement timing.
Most contracts settle based on the BEA’s initial released value for the specified month; subsequent revisions generally do not affect settlement unless the contract explicitly states otherwise.
Key near-term movers include the monthly CPI, employment/payroll reports, personal income and outlays releases, retail sales, and other demand indicators because they update expectations about inflation trajectory and the Fed’s reaction.
Price discovery is driven by a mix of participants: macro-focused traders, institutional funds and prop desks, economists and analysts publishing forecasts, and retail traders—along with reaction to official data and Fed communications.