| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined range the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will fall into for July 2026; core PCE is a key inflation gauge that policymakers and markets watch closely. Outcomes matter because the reported change can influence interest-rate expectations, bond yields, and broader market positioning.
Core PCE excludes food and energy and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for policy decisions. Monthly core PCE prints reflect trends in services (especially shelter) and goods prices, and July 2026 will be interpreted in the context of recent inflation momentum, labor-market conditions, and any policy actions or signals from the Fed. Historical monthly volatility, seasonal patterns, and occasional BEA methodology revisions mean each print is read alongside prior months and other incoming data.
Market odds on this event represent traders' collective views about which range the July 2026 core PCE increase will fall into and will move as new data or news arrive. They are a shorthand for market expectations, not an economic forecast or definitive prediction.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report, which contains the core PCE reading, on a regular monthly schedule (typically near the end of the following month). Traders use that published print to determine which outcome resolves, so market pricing will often move in the days and hours leading up to the official release.
Each outcome corresponds to a non-overlapping numeric range for the month-to-month increase in core PCE for July 2026; when the BEA releases the official figure, the contract resolving rules select the single outcome whose range contains the reported change. Check the specific market page for the exact numeric boundaries and resolution rules.
The BEA sometimes revises past PCE figures in subsequent releases; however, resolution typically depends on the initial official publish or the resolution rule specified by the market. Traders should review this market's rules to confirm whether the initial release or later revisions determine the outcome.
Watch preceding CPI releases, employment reports (jobs, hours, and wage measures), consumer spending and personal income data, producer-price metrics, housing and rent indicators, and any Fed speeches or minutes that could shift expectations about demand and policy.
Participants include macro traders (hedge funds and institutional desks), economists and data-focused speculators, retail traders, and algorithmic market-makers; their collective positioning reacts to incoming data, central-bank commentary, and short-term risk events that change expectations for the July print.