| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.3% | 86% | 81¢ | 86¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 32% | 31¢ | 32¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 97% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the U.S. core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy) increase will be for January 2026. The reading matters because the core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and influences rate expectations, bond yields, and financial markets.
Core PCE is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Personal Income and Outlays release and is closely watched for trends in services, shelter, and wage-driven inflation. This Kalshi market offers five mutually exclusive outcomes, has seen $57,116 in trading volume, and its closing time is listed as TBD on the platform.
Prices in this prediction market reflect traders’ collective expectations about which outcome interval the official BEA core PCE reading for January 2026 will fall into; movements in price signal shifting expectations as new data or policy signals arrive. Treat market prices as real-time sentiment rather than guarantees—the official BEA release determines settlement.
The market will settle to the core PCE value published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Personal Income and Outlays report for January 2026; the market’s rules specify whether settlement uses the month-over-month or annualized percent change, so consult the event page for that exact settlement definition.
The BEA publishes the Personal Income and Outlays report for a given month in the following month (the January report is typically released in February 2026); this market will settle on the BEA publication designated in its rules, so settlement timing follows that official release.
Each of the five outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive numerical interval for the January 2026 core PCE increase; buyers of an outcome are taking the position that the official BEA reading will fall within that interval as defined on the market page.
Settlement typically uses the specific BEA publication identified in the market’s rules (often the initial release for the month); subsequent revisions to the BEA series rarely change settlement unless the event explicitly states it will use a revised series—check the event rules for the settlement convention.
Key movers include monthly labor reports (payrolls and wages), CPI readings, retail sales and consumer spending reports, Fed communications and policy meetings, and any supply shocks or large shifts in shelter/rent data; market reactions will reflect how new information changes expectations for the BEA’s January core PCE print.