| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how much the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will increase in February 2026; core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and influences interest‑rate expectations and financial markets.
Core PCE excludes food and energy and is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Markets watch the February release for signs of persistent inflation or cooling after prior months, and participants will compare the print to recent trends in services, shelter, and wage growth when forming views.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the BEA‑reported change for February 2026; higher prices imply participants expect a larger reported increase and lower prices imply a smaller reported increase. Use the market as a real‑time signal of investor views, while remembering the official BEA release and subsequent revisions are the authoritative source.
The BEA publishes PCE on a regular monthly schedule; the contract will settle based on the BEA release specified in the event's rules. Check the event page or the BEA release calendar to confirm the exact release the contract references.
Each of the five outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive range for the reported change in core PCE for February 2026 as defined in the contract. Only the one range that contains the BEA's reported value will be the settled outcome, so read the outcome labels to see which interval each represents.
Settlement depends on the exchange's stated rules for this contract; some events settle on the initially published BEA figure while others specify a later vintage. Consult the event's settlement rules to know whether subsequent BEA revisions affect settlement.
Core PCE is a key input for monetary policy decisions, so consider how recent Fed communications and rate path expectations interact with incoming economic data. Trades often reflect both current data signals (wages, services, shelter) and how those signals would change the Fed's outlook for inflation.
Look at the recent month‑to‑month path of core PCE and its main subcomponents (services, shelter, goods), trends in wages and employment, and any unusual seasonal or base‑effect factors around February. Also monitor near‑term indicators such as CPI releases, employment reports, and survey data for corroborating signals.