| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise in August 2026; it matters because core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and influences monetary policy and financial markets.
Core PCE excludes food and energy and is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis within the Personal Income and Outlays report. Markets and policymakers watch its month‑over‑month moves as a timely signal of underlying inflation trends and potential shifts in interest rate expectations.
Prediction market odds aggregate participant expectations and update as new data or news arrives; they offer a real‑time snapshot of market consensus about the likely BEA‑published August 2026 core PCE monthly change, not a guarantee of the actual release.
Resolution is based on the official core PCE value published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for August 2026; the market page will show the exact close time and settlement rules (Closes: TBD).
This market has five discrete outcomes, each corresponding to a specified range of month‑over‑month increases in the core PCE index for August 2026; the winning outcome is the range that contains the BEA‑published value.
Settlement uses the core PCE Price Index month‑over‑month change for August 2026 as published in the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays report (the value and seasonal adjustment specified in the market rules).
Typically settlement is based on the official BEA release specified in the market rules (usually the first published value for the month); check the event’s rule text to confirm whether later revisions are considered.
Monitor monthly employment and wage reports, ISM and services activity data, producer price movements, shifts in shelter indicators, commodity price shocks, and Fed communications, as each can alter expectations for the August core PCE outcome.