| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50 GWdc | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $57K | Trade → |
| At least 40 GWdc | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| At least 60 GWdc | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| At least 30 GWdc | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| At least 70 GWdc | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks which total amount of solar generation capacity will be installed in the United States during calendar year 2025, a forward-looking gauge of how quickly solar deployment is progressing. Outcomes matter for investors, developers, grid planners, and policy makers who use expected deployment to plan capacity, supply chains, and financing.
U.S. solar deployment has grown substantially in recent years driven by federal incentives, falling equipment costs, corporate demand, and state renewable policies; at the same time, supply-chain disruptions, interconnection backlogs, permitting delays, and financing conditions have created uncertainty about near-term delivery. The Inflation Reduction Act and other incentives altered economics for many projects, while ongoing grid and permitting constraints have moderated how quickly contracted projects can be brought online.
Market prices (odds) reflect the collective, real-time judgment of traders about which capacity range is most likely to be observed in 2025; they update as new data or news arrive. Use market movement as a signal of changing expectations, not as a fixed forecast—check the event’s resolution rules for the exact definition of 'installed'.
Check the market’s resolution criteria on the event page; typically "installed" refers to capacity that is commissioned/operational within the U.S. during calendar year 2025 as measured by the specified authoritative data source.
Unless the event page narrows the scope, these markets generally include all forms of installed solar capacity (residential, commercial, and utility-scale) aggregated across the United States.
The market offers five mutually exclusive capacity ranges (each a specific MW/GW band) listed on the event page; each outcome corresponds to a non-overlapping range for total U.S. solar capacity commissioned in 2025.
Resolution typically relies on authoritative industry or government publications such as U.S. government energy statistics and major industry trackers—see the market’s resolution rules for the exact source used to settle this contract.
Significant items include large utility PPA signings or cancellations, changes to federal tax or incentive rules, major module-manufacturer capacity announcements or disruptions, interconnection queue reforms, and sudden shifts in financing conditions or interest rates.