| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 250 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 500 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 750 billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much federal government spending will be cut during Donald J. Trump’s presidential term before that term ends. It matters because aggregate spending changes affect deficits, program funding, economic outcomes, and political priorities.
Presidential spending reductions are implemented through a mix of executive actions and laws passed by Congress; presidents can propose cuts, but durable reductions generally require congressional approval or clear statutory authority. Historical experience shows proposed cuts often face resistance from Congress, federal agencies, interest groups, and courts, and the final measured change depends on how policy actions are scored by official budget offices.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which outcome will occur and change as new information arrives; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal conditional on the contract’s definitions and settlement rules.
The period is the duration of the president’s four-year term as defined in the market contract; settlement counts spending changes enacted and in effect up to the contract’s specified cut-off date and time—consult the contract for the precise end date and time zone.
Typically only legally binding reductions to federal outlays or budget authority that alter the measured baseline count; that can include enacted legislation, authorized rescissions, or statutory changes that reduce future outlays—temporary administrative measures without budgetary effect are often excluded. The exchange’s contract text defines included actions.
The market operator resolves settlement using official sources and budgetary accounting (for example, OMB, CBO, Treasury reports, and enacted statutes) as specified in the contract; disputed cases follow the platform’s stated dispute-resolution procedures.
Settlement reflects the net effect on measured spending during the term according to the contract’s measurement rules; reversals or offsets that change actual outlays by the cut-off date will be reflected in the final accounting used to settle the market.
Legislative pathways such as reconciliation bills, appropriations decisions, standalone rescission packages, and major changes to entitlement formulas are the main routes; executive actions with clear statutory authority can matter but often require follow-up legislation for lasting, measurable reductions.