| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many Supreme Court justices the President will confirm; the result affects the Court's ideological balance and the long-term direction of major legal rulings.
Presidents nominate justices when seats become vacant because of retirements, resignations, or deaths, and the Senate must confirm nominees by a vote. Confirmation dynamics have changed in recent years due to shifts in Senate procedures, party control, and the strategic timing of retirements, all of which influence how many confirmations a president can realistically achieve.
Market prices represent the aggregate expectations of traders based on news, Senate arithmetic, and political signals; they update as new information (announcements, nominations, hearings, votes) arrives and are not fixed forecasts.
The market counts Supreme Court confirmations according to its settlement rules, typically final Senate confirmation votes that result in a justice being sworn in. Refer to the market's official rules page for the exact criteria used to determine settlement.
Attribution depends on the event's specific rules. Some markets count only confirmations that occur while the sitting president is in office or attribute confirmations to the president who nominated the justice. Check this market's settlement rules to see how post-term confirmations are handled.
Treatments vary by market. Many markets attribute a confirmation to the president who formally made the nomination, but some use the date of confirmation or the sitting president at confirmation. Consult the event's rules for the official attribution method.
Procedural rules determine how easily the Senate can move nominations to a final vote. Whether a simple majority suffices for confirmation, committee timelines, and floor scheduling all shape the Senate's capacity to confirm nominees and therefore influence the market outcome.
A announced future retirement increases the likelihood of at least one vacancy and can shift market expectations, but only an actual vacancy followed by a finalized Senate confirmation typically counts toward the market's settled outcome. Check the official rules for whether announced-but-not-yet-effective retirements are treated in any special way.