| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 53 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 55 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 65 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 75 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 85 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 90 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many U.S. Senators will vote for the next government funding bill. The outcome matters because that roll-call determines whether federal agencies keep operating, shapes fiscal policy, and signals the strength of congressional coalitions.
Government funding bills (appropriations or continuing resolutions) must clear the Senate to avoid a partial or full shutdown; recent years have seen last‑minute negotiations, continuing resolutions, and tight margins. Senate rules (including the filibuster and cloture thresholds), the bill’s contents, and party leadership strategy all shape how many Senators ultimately vote yes.
Market prices represent the aggregated expectations of participants about how many Senators will vote for final passage; prices update as news, negotiations, or procedural developments change the perceived likely vote total. Treat prices as indicators of market sentiment, not definitive forecasts.
This refers to Senators who are recorded as casting a 'Yea' (or equivalent recorded affirmative vote) on the final passage roll call for the next government funding measure on the Senate floor.
Resolution will follow the official Senate roll-call result for the final passage of the next funding bill; the market settles after the Senate’s recorded final passage vote is published according to the platform’s stated settlement rules.
No — only Senators officially recorded as voting in favor on the final passage roll call count as votes 'for'; absences, not‑voting entries, and paired votes that are not recorded as 'Yea' are not counted as yes votes.
No — this event focuses on the final passage roll call. However, cloture votes and amendment battles matter because they influence whether the bill reaches final passage and which Senators ultimately support it.
Useful signals include leadership whip counts, public statements from swing or moderate Senators, timing relative to funding deadlines, whether the bill is a standalone appropriations measure or a continuing resolution, and whether bipartisan compromises or high-profile concessions are reported.