| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many U.S. Senators will vote in favor of confirming Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve. The outcome matters because the Senate's decision determines who leads U.S. monetary policy and affects financial- and economic-facing expectations.
Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve Governor and Treasury adviser whose nomination would require Senate consideration and a floor vote. The confirmation process typically includes committee hearings, a committee recommendation (or discharge), and a full Senate roll-call or voice vote set against whatever political and economic backdrop exists at the time.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information—hearings, floor scheduling, public statements, or shifting political dynamics—arrives. They are not guarantees; they are real-time signals that can change rapidly with news or strategic decisions by senators or party leaders.
This market resolves based on the official Senate vote tally for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair; resolution uses the Senate’s published roll-call or other official vote record tied to the nomination.
If there is no roll-call count, the market will follow the platform’s published resolution policy, which typically uses official Senate documentation or a clear administrative determination about the number of affirmative votes; check the market’s rules or resolution notes for specifics.
A favorable committee recommendation can build momentum and clarify likely floor support, while a committee opposition or partisan split can signal tougher bargaining and uncertain floor outcomes; however, only the final full-Senate vote determines the market outcome.
Key movers are typically moderates and senators from swing states, members of the relevant committee, and any senators publicly undecided or negotiating policy concessions—these actors can be pivotal in determining the final count.
Abstentions and absences reduce the number of votes cast and therefore alter the raw count of affirmative votes; the market resolves to the actual number of recorded 'yes' votes on the official Senate record for this nomination.